Residents of the Sverdlovsk region are tired of cold weather and gloomy skies. And for the next few days, the weather forecast is disappointing: the air temperature will be significantly below the climatic norm. When will the heat finally come? The Regional Newspaper decided to find out about this from the chief forecaster of the Uralhydrometeorological center Galina SHEPORENKO.
– Galina Andriyanovna, to what will be the first month, so to speak, of summer?
– First decade of the first summer month will also be cold. But there is hope that real summer will come in the second decade of June. However, I cannot confidently give a forecast for such a long period.
- What explains such a long cold weather in May?
- This is how the circulation of atmospheric flows developed. Cold Arctic air from the northern territories very often entered the Middle Ural. And the heat accumulates in the south of the European part and does not move towards us.
- How often do such unfortunate, in terms of weather, years happen?
- Infrequently. But a complete analogy is always very difficult to find. The weather does not repeat itself, every year it is different and brings unexpected surprises. At the same time in Yekaterinburg average monthly temperature in May, only one degree below normal. And the precipitation in May fell within the normal range. Feature This May is that there was no increase in heat in the second half of the month, as is usually the case. In addition, there are often frosts. Therefore, this year, farmers in the Middle Urals started agricultural work late. And besides, and because the earth, as they say, did not ripen in time. The winter was not snowy, and the soil froze deeper than usual, and thawed for a very long time. Moisture stagnated. Therefore, there are serious concerns about whether the harvest will have time to ripen this summer.
According to the Russian Hydrometeorological Center, during the current working week under the influence of cyclones and atmospheric fronts in the Urals and in Western Siberia it will be rainy and very windy. Powerful cyclonic vortex centered on Northern Urals will bring heavy rains on May 31 to the Sverdlovsk and Kurgan regions. In the Sverdlovsk region during the day it is no higher than plus 10 degrees, at night the temperature can drop to zero.
As some forecasters predicted, summer will come this year, not gradually, but immediately, that is, suddenly.
signs global warming on the planet and climate change we are already seeing with you.
Already in early May, people will change their warm clothes for summer. And apparently they were right.
Now in most of our country the air temperature exceeds 20 degrees Celsius, and in some Russian settlements The thermometer is over the 30s.
Of course, many are interested in the question: "What will the summer be like this year - hot, dry, or, conversely, cool and humid, or will it just be warm?" Someone wants to know this in order to understand what kind of harvest they can expect, someone thinks about what clothes to buy, and it is important for someone to know about it in order to take a vacation at work in the most favorable weather.
Weather forecasts for the summer of 2020 are somewhat different. 🌞 Some argue that summer in Russia will not be hot and even rainy🌂 . Drought, forest fires threaten only the south of Russia.
In general, this summer in our country will be warm, however, not very long. And this means that all summer the average monthly air temperature will be slightly higher than the climatic norm. BUT short summer it will be because, according to some meteorologists, that already in August in the central regions of Russia, as well as in the north of the country, it will become somewhat cool: they will go frequent rains and the cold wind will increase.
But weather forecasters are reassuring – the weather in August will change from time to time to warm. True, the end of August will be cold, even colder than the beginning of this month and its middle. However, in the south of the country, August will be warm, but there may be heavy rains. Somewhere until mid-September there will be sunny, warm weather, unless, of course, short-term rains and thunderstorms are taken into account.
🌄 In the Urals, according to weather forecasts, in June it will be dry and practically without precipitation, in July it will still be warm and even hot - the thermometer will rise to 28 degrees, however, the heat will alternate with showers and thunderstorms. In August it will be warm there, but it will rain occasionally.
According to other weather forecasters, the summer of 2020 in our country will be extremely dry, which may leave Russia even without a harvest. Considering that an economic crisis is also predicted for the country, the picture is depressing: it's time to run to buy cereals and stock up on crackers.
🌅 What will summer 2020 be like in Crimea🌅Continental and maritime climate prevailing in the Crimea guarantees a comfortable summer.
The air will warm up during the day to an average of 26 0 C, Water 23 0 С. Mild and warm weather will allow you to comfortably relax and spend your holidays here this summer.
The CenterGeology company began its work on the territory of the peninsula. At the end of 2014, not a simple work was launched to drill wells for water in the Crimea, as well as all related work: well construction, organization of water filtration. Having your own source of water is now a particularly pressing issue.
However, people, there are people, but nature itself makes its own adjustments, without asking anyone. What will be the summer - time will tell.
The Hydrometeorological Center of Russia made a forecast for six months ahead - for everything warm months from April to September 2018.
Forecasters give such preliminary forecasts annually, but they call them probabilistic. Unlike the usual weather forecasts for the coming days, here they predict not temperature or rain, but deviations from climatic norms. Where it will be warmer, and where it will be colder than usual, where it will be too damp, and where it will be dry. And, of course, these norms are different for each region - normal summer in Sochi and equally common in Murmansk are completely different from each other.
Forecasts for such a long period are justified by approximately 70%, the Russian Hydrometeorological Center warns.
In general, the warm half-year in Russia is expected to be quite normal and normal - with temperatures and precipitation within the normal range. But this is an average.
What should residents prepare for? different regions? In the forecast for each month, we indicate only the territories where unusual events are expected. weather, where weather forecasters predict deviations from climatic norms.
APRIL
Very warm spring weather will be established in the north-west of Russia: in St. Petersburg and the Leningrad region, the Pskov region, Kaliningrad region, on the Kola Peninsula. April will also be warmer than climatic norms in many areas Krasnoyarsk Territory and Yakutia.
Very dry - in the Crimea, Rostov and Kursk regions, as well as in the Arctic - from Naryan-Mar to Tiksi, in the Magadan region, in Kamchatka.
Rainy April is expected in the Volga region and the Urals: in Astrakhan, Samara, Volgograd, Kazan, Ufa, Yekaterinburg, Perm, Chelyabinsk. More precipitation than expected according to climatic norms will also go to many Siberian regions: Novosibirsk, Barnaul, Krasnoyarsk, Yakutsk.
Unusual heat in May will delight residents of the northern regions: from Arkhangelsk and Syktyvkar to Perm, Salekhar and Khanty-Mansiysk.
Dry May - in the center of the Ural Federal District (in Yekaterinburg, Perm, Khanty-Mansiysk, Surgut), as well as in the Amur Region.
A very wet month awaits the Murmansk region, part of Karelia and the Arkhangelsk region, the south of the Volga region - Volgograd and Astrakhan, the Irkutsk region, Khabarovsk region, Primorye, Sakhalin.
JUNE
abnormal warm start summer is expected only in the Far North, from Naryan-Mar to Khatanga.
Precipitation deficit in June - in Siberia, from Khatanga in the north to Yeniseisk in the south, and also in the Amur region.
Rainy June forecasters promise in middle lane: in Moscow, Tula, Kursk, Nizhny Novgorod; as well as in the Irkutsk region and in part of Magadan.
JULY
Hotter than usual July will be in many Volga and Ural regions: Tatarstan, Udmurtia, Bashkortostan, Perm Territory, Sverdlovsk Region, Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous Okrug, Tyumen Region.
Dry land - in some areas of the Krasnoyarsk and Khabarovsk Territories.
Wet mid-summer is expected in the south of the Ural Federal District, in Transbaikal and the Magadan region.
AUGUST
An abnormally hot August can happen in the center of the Siberian Federal District: Krasnoyarsk, Kemerovo, Bratsk, Tomsk, Ust-Ilimsk...
Dry in Transbaikalia and Primorye. Residents of the Omsk and Novosibirsk regions, as well as Altai, will meet the rains in autumn.
Spring has passed, summer of 2018 has come. But nothing much has changed: as it was cold, it is. Looking at the weather outside the window, you will not immediately understand what time of the year you are. Either the end of the Ural April, or a dank October. Although the calendar says optimistically: we are in June!
Are the current cold, windy spring and bleak beginning of summer a rarity? Or are such vagaries of the weather in the order of things? When will real summer come? The answers to these questions were given by the leading specialists of the Ural Department for Hydrometeorology and Monitoring environment.
To start Lyudmila Petrovna Savarynyuk, Head of Agricultural Forecasts Department, suggested remembering exactly how spring "sneaked" into the Urals this year:
- In most of the region, the snow came down on April 15-20. The soil has begun to thaw. But it was held back by cold weather, frequent rainfall in late April and early May. From time to time, snow cover was established in some areas of the region. More than 200 percent of the precipitation fell from April 20 to May 10. And in the east of the region - up to 400 percent. The average air temperature in the same period was 2.5 degrees below normal. Quite intense night frosts were also observed in the first decade of May.
Such weather conditions delayed the drying of the soil, so the start of the sowing campaign was delayed by 10-20 days. According to weather stations, the physical ripeness, when it is possible to start sowing crops, the soil reached by May 15, and in some areas even later.
It would seem that by mid-May the earth warmed up to desired temperature- up to 8-12 degrees, but again the weather intervened - again cold, strong winds, precipitation. The average temperature in May also lagged behind the climatic norm by 2-3 degrees.
- Over the past 20 years, a similar picture was observed in 2004, 2009 and 2014, that is, every fifth year - L.P. Savarynyuk. - The start of agricultural work was then also delayed for 7-10 days. But in those years, the May weather reached faster good performance, on some days the temperature rose to 28, and even up to 30 degrees. The average monthly temperature in May in those years was 2-3 degrees above the norm. And this year, the level of May heat was low, by the end of the month it did not reach an average of 10 degrees Celsius per day.
Such weather seriously slowed down the sowing campaign: according to the regional Ministry of Agriculture, only 50 percent of the spring wedge was sown by the end of May. The delay in sowing will affect the growing season of agricultural plants, as a result, this may lead to late maturation of spring crops. This, in turn, entails late harvesting dates, and the weather in September in the Urals cannot boast of warmth either. The result is yield loss.
The reasons for the current unstable weather told Galina Andriyanovna Sheporenko, chief forecaster Ural Department for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring:
- In April and May climatic conditions characterized by a pronounced predominance of northwestern atmospheric currents. In the Urals, the weather was "conducted" by a vast anticyclone, the center of which migrated to the regions of Taimyr and the Kara Sea and caused the frequent invasion of us by cold air masses. atmospheric fronts and cyclones on our territory were very frequent: four cold anticyclones passed in May. The prevailing opinion that if it is warm in Moscow, then in two days this weather will reach the Urals, this time was not justified. Only a few short bursts of heat made their way to us. Eventually average temperature In May, our temperature turned out to be 6 degrees lower than in Moscow.
The active frontal zone over the Urals also provoked partial strong winds.
By climatic norm, very windy - with a speed of 15 meters per second or more - should be 2-3 days during May. Today it was observed 7-8 days.
Frosts were also frequent in May. For example, at a weather station in the Rezhevsky district, where frosts are traditionally very often observed, these turned out to be almost every third night during May.
- Last year, the summer was also very heterogeneous, - G.A. Sheporenko. – The first half was very rainy, the soil was waterlogged. The second half turned out to be more favorable, in August there were even hot days. And the harvest was more or less normal. And such weather situations as this spring have already happened during the observation period. For example, the spring of 1985 turned out to be very cold, especially the second half of May, with intense frosts, which led to the freezing of already sown crops. In the Kurgan region, up to 70 percent of crops then froze. Frosts in that year were observed almost until mid-June. So the current weather is not unique.
The weather situation, according to forecasters, should improve by mid-June. So far, we have observed precipitation in the form of light snow in the first days of summer. auspicious days, of course, we will fall, but it is too early to talk about stable warming.
And yet, it remains to be hoped that for the Urals, nature has more than just bad weather in store.
“June is traditionally not a very reliable month for us. Therefore, we will have patience, ”the chief weather forecaster of the Middle Urals suggested.
According to the long-term forecast of the Federal Hydrometeorological Center, July in the Urals should be without cataclysms, with temperatures and precipitation habitual for the region. Recall that in our country the average monthly temperature is considered the norm for July, taking into account night and daytime indicators, - 17-19 degrees. Long term forecasts- the thing is not very reliable. At least it shouldn't be worse than last year. Only now, alas, there is no longer any hope for high yields.
Natalya Bereznyakova
Recall that earlier a specialist of the Ural Research Institute Agriculture during the correspondence "hot line" told
